EU Council 15–16 October: what’s at stake for the EU ETS and your carbon costs

September 2026 has once again reminded many Spanish businesses that energy can be the most unpredictable line in the P&L. European gas topped €80/MWh for the first time in three years. The Spanish electricity market is closing the month with prices far above 2025 levels, and Brent is still trading above $100/bbl. Behind almost all of it lies a single name: the Strait of Hormuz. What has happened to energy prices in recent weeks Gas in Europe (TTF). According to ICE data compiled by GMK Center, the October contract on the TTF, Europe’s benchmark gas hub, rose to €82/MWh on 10 September and to €82.52/MWh on 14 September. In June, the same contract averaged €44.94/MWh. Prices then eased: on 25 September it was trading at €71.16/MWh, 10.5% lower than a week earlier (Anadolu Agency). Even so, European gas storage was 70.24% full on 24 September, compared with more than 80% a year earlier. Gas in Spain (MIBGAS). On MIBGAS, the Iberian wholesale gas market, the September average stood at €73.25/MWh as of 22 September. That is around €41.5/MWh more than in September 2025 (Consultoría L.A., based on MIBGAS data). Electricity (OMIE pool). On the Spanish day-ahead electricity market, known as the “pool” and run by the Iberian market operator OMIE, the September average was €140.24/MWh as of 22 September, around €79/MWh above September 2025 (Consultoría L.A.). Daily swings are huge. On Monday 28 September the average price was €198.05/MWh, 74.26% higher than on the Sunday, and the most expensive hour reached €265.67/MWh (Rankia, based on OMIE data). The following day, the pool ranged from €224.15/MWh in the early morning to €1.08/MWh at midday, with solar running at full output (Expansión). Oil (Brent). On Monday 28 September, Brent jumped by more than $4/bbl at the open after the United States rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It settled at $105.28/bbl (Reuters). Hormuz: why a distant strait shapes your energy bill Before the war that began on 28 February with US and Israeli strikes on Iran, around a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz (Al Jazeera). It is also the export route for liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar, one of the world’s largest exporters. Traffic has picked up somewhat, but remains far from normal: What about Spain? Spain relies relatively little on fuel from the Gulf, but it is not immune to the shock. When LNG is scarce, Europe and Asia compete for the same cargoes. Many contracts include “destination flexibility” clauses, so vessels end up wherever buyers pay the most. Between April and June, Spanish regasification terminals missed 17 of the 69 scheduled deliveries. Losses eased in July and August, to 2 out of 15 and 3 out of 26 respectively (El Periódico, 7 September). Gas also feeds directly into electricity prices. In many hours, combined-cycle gas plants set the marginal price in the pool, so every rise in gas prices is passed through to electricity. On top of this come structural factors such as the closure of Spain’s nuclear power plants and its impact on electricity prices (article in Spanish). Why volatility penalises businesses without a strategy The problem is not just that prices are high, but not knowing how much you will pay. For an industrial SME or a logistics company, that has tangible costs: A contract that is 100% indexed to the pool passes the entire risk straight through to your P&L, as 28 September made clear. Pricing and hedging strategies: what options does your business have? There is no one-size-fits-all formula. The key is to decide how much of the risk you take on and how much you hedge: Fixed, indexed or hybrid pricing. A fixed price gives complete certainty for the contract term, at the cost of missing out on price falls. An indexed price lets you benefit from cheaper hours, but exposes you to spikes. Many businesses fix the stable part of their consumption and leave the rest indexed. Staggered purchasing. Volume is contracted in tranches, at different times and over different horizons, to average out the price rather than betting everything on a single day. PPAs (long-term power purchase agreements). These allow you to secure a price for renewable electricity over several years, often 10 or more. They suit consumers with significant, stable demand and support decarbonisation. Forward curve analysis. The forward curve shows the price at which you can lock in energy today for the coming months or years. As of 22 September, the Spanish power futures contract for 2027 was trading at €86.10/MWh, well below the September day-ahead average of €140.24/MWh. MIBGAS gas for 2027 was around €56.53/MWh, compared with a monthly average of €73.25/MWh (Consultoría L.A.). The market is pricing in a degree of normalisation. But the curve is not a forecast: the 2027 power future fell by €5/MWh in a single week on news of negotiations with Iran. Read correctly, it helps you decide when to hedge, and how much. Energy efficiency. Using less energy reduces the volume exposed to volatility. How ClimateTrade helps you control your energy costs Alongside its climate solutions, ClimateTrade has been supplying renewable electricity and natural gas to businesses since June 2026. Our approach is simple: we analyse your actual consumption and offer you a fixed-price electricity and natural gas supply for your business, locked in over the multi-year horizon of your choice. That gives you predictability and frees you from day-to-day market volatility. We also manage your Energy Savings Certificates (CAEs), issued under Spain’s Certificados de Ahorro Energético scheme. If you have invested in efficiency in recent years (LED lighting, new boilers, efficient heating and cooling, industrial upgrades or EV charging), you can recover part of that investment. Supply and CAEs are handled by the same team, and you can combine them with renewable energy certificates and ClimateTrade’s other solutions. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz could change within days, in either direction. What is within your control is how much