September 2026 has once again reminded many Spanish businesses that energy can be the most unpredictable line in the P&L. European gas topped €80/MWh for the first time in three years. The Spanish electricity market is closing the month with prices far above 2025 levels, and Brent is still trading above $100/bbl. Behind almost all of it lies a single name: the Strait of Hormuz.
What has happened to energy prices in recent weeks
Gas in Europe (TTF). According to ICE data compiled by GMK Center, the October contract on the TTF, Europe’s benchmark gas hub, rose to €82/MWh on 10 September and to €82.52/MWh on 14 September. In June, the same contract averaged €44.94/MWh. Prices then eased: on 25 September it was trading at €71.16/MWh, 10.5% lower than a week earlier (Anadolu Agency). Even so, European gas storage was 70.24% full on 24 September, compared with more than 80% a year earlier.
Gas in Spain (MIBGAS). On MIBGAS, the Iberian wholesale gas market, the September average stood at €73.25/MWh as of 22 September. That is around €41.5/MWh more than in September 2025 (Consultoría L.A., based on MIBGAS data).
Electricity (OMIE pool). On the Spanish day-ahead electricity market, known as the “pool” and run by the Iberian market operator OMIE, the September average was €140.24/MWh as of 22 September, around €79/MWh above September 2025 (Consultoría L.A.). Daily swings are huge. On Monday 28 September the average price was €198.05/MWh, 74.26% higher than on the Sunday, and the most expensive hour reached €265.67/MWh (Rankia, based on OMIE data). The following day, the pool ranged from €224.15/MWh in the early morning to €1.08/MWh at midday, with solar running at full output (Expansión).
Oil (Brent). On Monday 28 September, Brent jumped by more than $4/bbl at the open after the United States rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It settled at $105.28/bbl (Reuters).
Hormuz: why a distant strait shapes your energy bill
Before the war that began on 28 February with US and Israeli strikes on Iran, around a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz (Al Jazeera). It is also the export route for liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar, one of the world’s largest exporters.
Traffic has picked up somewhat, but remains far from normal:
- Qatar almost completely halted exports through the strait in early July, after one of its vessels was attacked. In the week to 24 September it shipped out at least four laden LNG carriers, its highest level of activity in more than two months (Bloomberg, via gCaptain).
- According to Kpler data cited by Argus, there were 13 visible transits by QatarEnergy vessels in September. Several others crossed with their location tracking switched off.
- Qatar has confirmed damage to around 17% of the capacity at its Ras Laffan complex. Some of that capacity could come back once the strait reopens, but full repairs would take years (Consultoría L.A.).
- On the diplomatic front, Iran put forward a plan at the UN General Assembly to reopen the strait within seven days. Washington rejected it, and Qatari mediation is ongoing (Al Jazeera, 29 September).
What about Spain? Spain relies relatively little on fuel from the Gulf, but it is not immune to the shock. When LNG is scarce, Europe and Asia compete for the same cargoes. Many contracts include “destination flexibility” clauses, so vessels end up wherever buyers pay the most. Between April and June, Spanish regasification terminals missed 17 of the 69 scheduled deliveries. Losses eased in July and August, to 2 out of 15 and 3 out of 26 respectively (El Periódico, 7 September).
Gas also feeds directly into electricity prices. In many hours, combined-cycle gas plants set the marginal price in the pool, so every rise in gas prices is passed through to electricity. On top of this come structural factors such as the closure of Spain’s nuclear power plants and its impact on electricity prices (article in Spanish).
Why volatility penalises businesses without a strategy
The problem is not just that prices are high, but not knowing how much you will pay. For an industrial SME or a logistics company, that has tangible costs:
- Budgets that no longer hold. If energy costs change suddenly, margin forecasts are no longer valid.
- Eroding margins. Many companies cannot pass price rises on to their customers straight away.
- Cash-flow strain. A soaring winter bill forces you to draw on working capital at the worst possible moment.
- Reactive decisions. Without a strategy, companies tend either to lock in a price at the peak out of fear or to wait indefinitely for prices to fall. Either way, the market decides for you.
A contract that is 100% indexed to the pool passes the entire risk straight through to your P&L, as 28 September made clear.
Pricing and hedging strategies: what options does your business have?
There is no one-size-fits-all formula. The key is to decide how much of the risk you take on and how much you hedge:
Fixed, indexed or hybrid pricing. A fixed price gives complete certainty for the contract term, at the cost of missing out on price falls. An indexed price lets you benefit from cheaper hours, but exposes you to spikes. Many businesses fix the stable part of their consumption and leave the rest indexed.
Staggered purchasing. Volume is contracted in tranches, at different times and over different horizons, to average out the price rather than betting everything on a single day.
PPAs (long-term power purchase agreements). These allow you to secure a price for renewable electricity over several years, often 10 or more. They suit consumers with significant, stable demand and support decarbonisation.
Forward curve analysis. The forward curve shows the price at which you can lock in energy today for the coming months or years. As of 22 September, the Spanish power futures contract for 2027 was trading at €86.10/MWh, well below the September day-ahead average of €140.24/MWh. MIBGAS gas for 2027 was around €56.53/MWh, compared with a monthly average of €73.25/MWh (Consultoría L.A.). The market is pricing in a degree of normalisation. But the curve is not a forecast: the 2027 power future fell by €5/MWh in a single week on news of negotiations with Iran. Read correctly, it helps you decide when to hedge, and how much.
Energy efficiency. Using less energy reduces the volume exposed to volatility.
How ClimateTrade helps you control your energy costs
Alongside its climate solutions, ClimateTrade has been supplying renewable electricity and natural gas to businesses since June 2026. Our approach is simple: we analyse your actual consumption and offer you a fixed-price electricity and natural gas supply for your business, locked in over the multi-year horizon of your choice. That gives you predictability and frees you from day-to-day market volatility.
We also manage your Energy Savings Certificates (CAEs), issued under Spain’s Certificados de Ahorro Energético scheme. If you have invested in efficiency in recent years (LED lighting, new boilers, efficient heating and cooling, industrial upgrades or EV charging), you can recover part of that investment. Supply and CAEs are handled by the same team, and you can combine them with renewable energy certificates and ClimateTrade’s other solutions.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz could change within days, in either direction. What is within your control is how much of that risk reaches your P&L.
Want to know what price you could lock in for the coming years? Request a no-obligation review of your electricity and gas consumption and a ClimateTrade energy adviser will be in touch.
Sources
- GMK Center, “European gas prices exceeded €80/MWh in September”, 20 September 2026. https://gmk.center/en/news/european-gas-prices-exceeded-e80-mwh-in-september/
- Anadolu Agency, “European gas prices fall 10.5% on week as supply concerns ease”, 25 September 2026. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/natural-gas/european-gas-prices-fall-105-on-week-as-supply-concerns-ease/59872
- Consultoría L.A., “Informe semanal de mercado (del 17/09/2026 al 22/09/2026)” (weekly market report, in Spanish), 22 September 2026 (OMIE, MIBGAS and futures data). https://www.consultoriala.com/informe-semanal-de-mercado-del-17-09-2026-al-22-09-2026/
- Rankia, “Precio de la luz hoy, 28 de septiembre” (in Spanish), 28 September 2026 (OMIE and REE data). https://www.rankia.com/blog/luz-y-gas/7452866-precio-luz-hoy-28-septiembre-2026
- Expansión, “Precio de la luz hoy, 29 de septiembre” (in Spanish), 29 September 2026. https://www.expansion.com/empresas/energia/2026/09/29/6abb0d9be5fdeae73c8b4595.html
- Reuters (via Duke FM), “Oil prices settle slightly higher on supply worries as Trump rejects Iran proposal”, 28 September 2026. https://duke.fm/2026/09/28/oil-price-gains-pared-as-qatar-us-iran-talks-loom-2/
- Al Jazeera, “Iran’s Araghchi meets Qatari mediators as US calls for nuclear talks”, 29 September 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/29/irans-araghchi-meets-qatari-mediators-as-us-insists-on-nuclear-talks
- Bloomberg (via gCaptain), “Qatar Boosts LNG Traffic Via Hormuz as Global Shortage Bites”, 24 September 2026. https://gcaptain.com/qatar-boosts-lng-traffic-via-hormuz-as-global-shortage-bites/
- Argus (via World Ports Organization), “More dark Hormuz transits lift Qatari LNG hopes”, 25 September 2026. https://www.worldports.org/more-dark-hormuz-transits-lift-qatari-lng-hopes/
- El Periódico, “España contiene la fuga de barcos cargados con gas natural hacia otros países que pagan más” (in Spanish), 7 September 2026. https://www.elperiodico.com/es/economia/20260907/espana-contiene-fuga-barcos-cargados-133951212
